Progressive Group Poll: Kuster, Hassan Lead GOP Opponents

With less than six weeks to go before the 2012 general election, a new poll commissioned by a national progressive political group purports to show that Democratic gubernatorial candidate Maggie Hassan and congressional candidate Ann McLane Kuster have solid leads against their Republican opponents.

According to a Progressive Change Campaign Committee press release, Public Policy Polling surveyed 862 likely voters in the governor’s race between Sept. 24, and Sept. 25. The results showed that Hassan with 51 percent of the vote and Republican Ovide Lamontagne with 44 percent. Five percent of the respondents were undecided voters. The margin of error on the results was 3.3 percent.

John Babiarz, the libertarian running for governor who is also on the ballot, appears to have not been included in the poll. 

In the 2nd Congressional District, 461 likely Granite State voters were polled and the results were similar to the governor's race: Kuster received 51 percent of those polled while incumbent U.S. Rep. Charles Bass, R-NH-2, received 45 percent. The undecided number came in at 4 percent and the margin of error was 4.6 percent.

Hardy Macia, the libertarian candidate who is also on the ballot, also appears to not have been included in the poll. 

"Voters know that Tea Party Republicans like Charlie Bass and Frank Guinta are blocking progress in Washington,” stated Neil Sroka, a spokesperson for the committee.

Sroka said that Kuster would be a champion for “working families, not Wall Street banks and big insurance companies."

The committee, which endorsed Kuster in 2011, will be mobilizing thousands of its members to support Kuster, Sroka said.

When asked for the statistical data showing the breakdown of the political affiliation in the poll, Sroka said the group didn’t have it but was “comfortable” with the polling firm's track record.

Without the data though, it is unknown whether or not the numbers are skewed or actually reflect the current state of the races.

As an example, in the governor’s race, there is a 60-voter spread between the two candidates. In the congressional race, the spread is 27 voters. With margins of error of 3 to 5 percent, any weighted sampling between registered Republicans and Democrats could sway the results from 6 to 7 percent spreads to something much closer.

According to realclearpolitics.com, which compiles a lot of polling results from around the country, Lamontagne has a 1.4 percent average lead based on the polling data since the primary. Lamontagne had 2 to 4 percent point leads in American Research Group and Rasmussen polls released during the last two weeks; another poll by NBC and Wall Street Journal, taken earlier this week, had Hassan up by 2 percent.

In the 2nd Congressional District race, the website has three polls taken from April through August, showing the lead shifting between both Bass and Kuster. The August poll, compiled by WMUR-TV and UNH Survey Center had Bass up by 5 percent.

Kuster lost the race in 2010 by less than 5,000 votes.